Revolution, Revolution, Revolution....

Revolution is in the air, or at least in the air of the middle east; from Tunisia to Egypt and Iran, Bahrain and Jordan, one gets a sense that the poor huddled masses of the citizens of this area are revolting against the mixture of secular Republics, Monarchies and the theocracy in Iran. Some commentators, especially in the Guardian and perhaps even on the neo-con right are rejoicing at this site of  "people power" as the yoke of dictatorship is finally lifted. Excellent. I am all in favour of liberal democracy and freedom of association, the press and the rule of law. But what worries me is that from the starting point of popular revolution, you do not always see countries go down the path of democracy, or some form of representative government.Nor does it mean that the region will become any more peaceful.

Let's look at a few examples from history :

1. The French Revolution- 1789-deposing the ancien regime of the absolutist Kings of France, undertaken by what appeared to be the popular will of poor peasants and struggling merchants, the Kingdom of France was quickly taken over by a bloodthirsty regime (literally) as not only the King, aristocrats but eventually anyone who was considered to be an enemy of the regime lost their heads in the orgy of blood letting called the reign of terror. Along with internal strife, the new French Republic began a campaign of conquest outside of its borders, starting a conflict which would last over 20 years (on an off) , saw the rise of Napoleon and the famous battles of Trafalgar and Waterloo.

2. The Russian Revolution- 1917- again the ancien regime of the Tsars was brought down following popular fury against the colossal looses Russia had sustained during world war one. At first the Russian Revolution appeared to go in a democratic way, with liberals such as Kerensky in power, but shortly after the ship of state took a different direction, that of Communism. We know the rest; vast starvation of the peasant population, Stalin and his gulags, the cold war .

3.The Iranian Revolution - 1979- initially a popular uprising against the dictatorship of the Shah, soon any hope of democracy was swept away and the country became a theocracy, dominated by a thought process which decreed the US to be "the great Satan" (the UK of course, was relegated to the role of a minion as the "lesser Satan").

So let us be a little bit more circumspect about what happens next. Not all revolutions turn out in a positive way.